New Poll Shows National Unity Party Tied With Likud

A new "Poll of Polls" from Globes indicates that the National Unity Party, led by Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, is now tied with the Likud party, each receiving 23 Knesset seats. This marks a shift from the previous week when the Likud stood alone at the top. The "Achieved Together" party, led by Naftali Bennett, maintains 12 seats, while the Democrats have fallen to 9.

Other parties show Israel Beiteinu, Otzma Yehudit, United Torah Judaism, and Shas each securing 8 seats. The Joint List receives 7 seats, Religious Zionism 6, and Ra'am 5. Avi Winter's party is projected to pass the electoral threshold in most polls, gaining 4 seats, while the party led by Yoaz Hendel and Ze'ev Elkin fails to cross the threshold in most surveys.

The coalition bloc, excluding Arab parties, continues to hold a lead over the opposition, with 56 seats compared to the opposition's 52. However, when including the Arab parties, which collectively garner 12 seats, the opposition reaches a total of 64 seats.

The average poll results mask significant discrepancies between different polling organizations and media outlets. Some polls show the coalition bloc with as few as 50-53 seats, while others, like i24news and Channel 14, show it surging to 60 or even 64 seats. This wide variance is particularly evident in the projected seat count for the Likud and Winter's party. Channel 14, for instance, gives the Likud 31 seats and the coalition 64, even without Winter's party clearing the threshold. Conversely, Maariv's poll shows the Likud with only 19 seats and the coalition with 50.

The opposition bloc, excluding Arab parties, leads in only two polls, those from Channel 12 and Maariv. In these specific polls, the Likud and Religious Zionism together lose 3 to 5 seats compared to the average, with the "Achieved Together" party gaining 2 to 3 seats above its average. National Unity gains two seats, suggesting other gains come from "Achieved Together." The potential shift of "soft right" voters to parties led by Eisenkot, Bennett, and Avigdor Lieberman could be decisive in determining the next prime minister.