Israeli Polls Show Tight Race Between Likud and National Unity Party

Recent opinion polls in Israel indicate a significant shift in the political landscape, with the National Unity Party, led by Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, now tied with the Likud party for first place. Both parties are projected to receive 23 seats in the Knesset, according to the latest "Poll of Polls" compiled by Globes. This marks a notable change from the previous week when the Likud stood alone at the top.

The "Poll of Polls" also shows the "Together" party, led by Naftali Bennett, maintaining 12 seats, while the Democrats have dropped to 9 seats. Other parties like Yisrael Beiteinu, Otzma Yehudit, United Torah Judaism, and Shas are each polling at 8 seats. The Joint List is projected to get 7 seats, Religious Zionism 6, and Ra'am 5. Avi Winter's party is expected to surpass the electoral threshold with 4 seats, while the party led by Yoaz Hendel and Ze'ev Elkin is not expected to pass the threshold in most polls.

The coalition bloc, excluding Arab parties, currently holds a slight lead over the opposition, with 56 seats compared to the opposition's 52. However, when including the 12 seats projected for Arab parties, the opposition bloc reaches 64 seats. The overall picture is complex, with significant discrepancies between different polls. Some polls show the coalition bloc with as few as 50-53 seats, while others, like i24news and Channel 14, show it reaching 60 or even 64 seats.

These wide variations highlight the differing methodologies and reporting of various polling organizations and media outlets. For instance, Channel 14 predicts 31 seats for the Likud and 64 for the coalition, even without Winter's party passing the threshold. Conversely, Maariv shows the Likud with only 19 seats and the coalition with 50.

The polls suggest that the "soft right" voters could play a decisive role in determining the next prime minister. A shift of 3 to 5 seats from the Likud and Religious Zionism to the parties of Eisenkot, Bennett, and Avigdor Lieberman could alter the bloc's leadership. Eisenkot's party has seen a modest increase of two seats, but a significant portion of the potential gains for his bloc appears to come from Bennett's "Together" party, which polls higher than average in scenarios where Eisenkot's bloc leads.