US Warns Iran May Launch Major Military Action Ahead of Midterms

A senior US official assessed on Thursday that economic and naval sanctions against Iran are significantly harming the regime's economy and may push Tehran to launch a major military operation by the November midterm elections, potentially involving Israel. The official stated that Iran is considering "significant escalation" and will not be content with only targeting Gulf states as it has in recent weeks. Israeli officials are also discussing the possibility of an Iranian attack and have decided to maintain a high alert status during the upcoming holiday. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated that Iran is attempting to re-arm with nuclear weapons, despite previous efforts to dismantle its capabilities. He pledged that Iran would not obtain nuclear weapons under his leadership and highlighted ongoing Israeli military actions against the Iranian axis in Gaza and Lebanon.

Meanwhile, US and Middle Eastern officials cited by The Wall Street Journal indicated that Iran has resumed ballistic missile production in underground facilities using existing components. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, confirmed to Bloomberg that construction activity has been observed at "Mount Mysterious" in Iran, a site suspected of being involved in the nuclear program. Grossi noted that while IAEA inspectors have not yet visited the site, satellite imagery shows renewed activity, though concrete information on the nature of these activities is lacking. This comes after the IAEA Board of Governors referred Iran's nuclear file to the UN Security Council due to non-compliance.

IAEA inspectors have not verified the status or location of enriched uranium stockpiles since June of the previous year, following Israeli and US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Activity at "Mount Mysterious," located in the Zagros Mountains, began after sabotage of centrifuges six years ago, with Iran stating its intention to move all operations into tunnels within the mountain for protection. Israel and the US are demanding Iran dismantle its centrifuges and cease uranium enrichment entirely.

US President Donald Trump has publicly commented on the site, warning Iran against provocative actions. Conversely, Iran has cautioned Western nations against weaponizing the IAEA, referencing a past attack that followed an IAEA determination of non-compliance. Trump also suggested that the conflict might end shortly after the elections, implying Iran's desperation to influence the midterms. He stated he is not currently seeking negotiations with Iran before the midterms, though he previously desired a deal.

However, The Wall Street Journal also reported that senior White House advisors have discussed internally with President Trump the possibility that the conflict could extend beyond his term, contradicting his public promises of a swift victory. This scenario, involving continued Iranian resistance to US pressure and military tactics, could prolong the conflict past the January 2029 inauguration of the next president, according to US officials.