Ex-IDF Officer Reveals Prior Warnings of Hamas Hostage Plan

A former senior Israeli military intelligence officer has revealed that Arab mediators had repeatedly warned Israel prior to the October 7th Hamas attacks about the possibility of a large-scale hostage-taking operation. Colonel (res.) Doron Adar, who previously headed the IDF General Staff's negotiation team for hostage releases, stated that mediators conveyed that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar might resort to a "much larger" operation if negotiations failed, as he would have "no choice."

Adar, who spent years negotiating with Hamas through Egyptian intermediaries for the release of two Israelis with mental disabilities and the return of the bodies of two fallen soldiers, noted that the October 7th massacre demonstrated how delays in negotiations inevitably increase the price of any potential deal. He asserted that "everyone understood" that refusing an agreement could push Sinwar towards a mass hostage-taking.

Following the October 7th events, Adar advocated for the swift conclusion of a hostage release deal, believing it was crucial to secure their return before the ground operation in Gaza began, as further delays would only escalate the cost. He believes subsequent events have validated this assessment.

After Israel did not extend a ceasefire for further hostage releases, Hamas demanded a complete cessation of the war as a primary condition for any deal, a demand they maintained even after significant military losses. The former officer's statements suggest that the scenario of a large-scale attack on October 7th should not have been a complete surprise to Israel's political leadership.

This revelation follows previous reports of warnings, including one from the UAE President to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shortly before the war, which researcher Ofer Shelah of the INSS believes could impact the assessment of events leading up to the October 7th massacre.