Houthis Advance Towards Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Threatening Global Shipping

Yemen's Houthi rebels, aligned with Iran, are reportedly seeking to control the entire Red Sea coastline of Yemen, a move that would significantly bolster their influence over the strategically vital Bab el-Mandeb strait. This waterway is one of the world's busiest maritime passages and a focal point of international competition. The Houthis have already declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, a major global oil exporter, and their potential dominance of the Bab el-Mandeb could complicate shipping routes for Gulf oil producers.

The Bab el-Mandeb, historically known as the "Gate of Tears" due to hazardous navigation, is situated at the southern end of the Red Sea, separating Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula from Djibouti and Eritrea on the African coast. It is located opposite the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint in U.S.-Iran tensions. The strait narrows to 29 kilometers (18 miles) at its widest, with Yemen's Perim Island dividing traffic into two channels. The Houthi-controlled port city of Hodeidah and the historic coastal town of Mokha, considered the birthplace of global coffee trade, are north of the strait. Their continued southward advance has seen them capture Mokha, and the town of Dhubab, directly overlooking the strait, along with Perim Island, are now critical strategic targets for consolidating control.

This strait is a crucial artery for global trade, particularly for goods traveling from Asia to Europe via the Suez Canal. It is also vital for shipments from Egypt's Sumed pipeline and for goods, including Russian oil, heading to Asia. Any disruption to shipping here forces vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, adding weeks and significant costs to journeys.

Even partial disruptions have proven devastating. Since late 2023, the Houthis have launched attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb in solidarity with Palestinians amid the war in Gaza. Major shipping and oil companies, including Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, Maersk, BP, and Frontline, have rerouted vessels, leading to increased shipping costs and longer transit times. Full Houthi control could provide Iran with a significant advantage in its conflict with the U.S., especially as energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have already sharply declined. In June, approximately seven percent of global oil production passed through the Bab el-Mandeb, according to Kepler data.