Top Pollster Predicts Widespread Discontent After Election

Senior pollster Shmuel Rosner of "Ha מדד" (The Index) predicts that few Israelis will be satisfied with the election results, anticipating a near-even split between the blocs. Rosner forecasts a 53-53 seat distribution, making it difficult for either side to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority coalition.

This deadlock could lead to several outcomes, including repeat elections, a minority government, or a unity government if a formula can be found. Rosner clarified that the common bloc division doesn't necessarily reflect support for or against the current coalition. When considering opposition to the current government, there is a larger majority, but the bloc comparison is typically between the current coalition and the "change bloc," excluding Arab parties.

Rosner also noted that parties within the "change bloc" are unlikely to fall below the electoral threshold. He attributed this to the "trauma of Meretz and Labor" among centrist and left-wing voters, and a sense of urgency among the bloc's supporters. Voters in this bloc are avoiding "experiments" with smaller parties, and even ideological appeals that might have attracted Jewish voters in the past are less effective now.

Regarding Benny Gantz, Rosner suggested that if it becomes clear there isn't sufficient support for his political moves, some of his backers might leave him, potentially diminishing his support on election day. Rosner believes Gantz's remaining supporters are primarily loyalists from previous parties, along with some 2022 Likud voters who wished to leave the coalition but not join the opposition.