NBA Analyst Predicts High Likelihood of Deni Avdija Leaving Portland in 2028

NBA analyst Sam Quinn of CBS Sports believes there is a "very high chance" Israeli basketball player Deni Avdija will become a free agent in the summer of 2028, potentially leaving the Portland Trail Blazers.

Quinn described Portland as a "sinking ship," suggesting the team is not in a financial position to retain the necessary salary cap space to re-sign Avdija to a new contract. Avdija is currently under a four-year, $55 million contract signed in 2023 with Washington, which extends through the end of the 2027-28 season. This deal is considered one of the most team-friendly in the NBA, with his salary decreasing annually, to $13.1 million in 2026-27 and $11.8 million in 2027-28.

While Portland can keep Avdija until his contract expires, securing his future with the team beyond that date presents a challenge. A standard contract extension would be based on his current, lower salary, offering him significantly less than his market value. Avdija, who could be a candidate for a maximum contract, would likely not accept such an offer.

To offer Avdija a larger deal before the summer of 2028, Portland would need to restructure his current agreement, significantly increase his salary for his final season, and add a long-term extension. This would require cap space, which Quinn suggests Portland's existing financial commitments to other players may prevent.

Even if an extension isn't agreed upon beforehand, Portland could still offer Avdija a new contract in 2028 and utilize Bird rights to exceed the salary cap. However, as an unrestricted free agent, Avdija would be free to negotiate with all NBA teams and choose his preferred destination. This means Portland risks losing him without compensation if they cannot secure his commitment.

Avdija's status has significantly improved since signing his contract. Last season, he achieved career-best averages of 24.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 6.7 assists in 66 games. His impressive performance earned him his first All-Star selection and led the Trail Blazers to their first playoff appearance since 2021.