Israel Faces Fourth War Year With One Goal Met, Many Unresolved

As Israel enters the fourth year of a multi-front war, only one of its initial objectives has been achieved: the return of hostages. All other war aims remain unmet, with active fronts in Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, and Syria.

The primary challenge for Israel is to conclude the conflict by reaching security agreements or understandings on each front. Israel's influence varies significantly across these fronts; its ability to resolve the situation with Iran is limited and largely dependent on U.S. President Donald Trump's actions. In contrast, Israel has greater capacity to influence outcomes in Gaza and Lebanon, though success hinges on a willingness to compromise and strong leadership.

Any agreement will require Israel to ensure the security of communities near its borders, both in the Gaza envelope and along the northern border, to facilitate the return of residents and the revival of local economies and education. This necessitates substantial government support for employment, infrastructure, transportation, education, and healthcare in these areas, support that has been lacking.

In the West Bank, the current government is attempting to manage the conflict without making politically difficult decisions. While taking steps to dismantle the Palestinian Authority, they are simultaneously keeping it on life support, risking instability if it collapses without a viable alternative. Key challenges include asserting Israeli sovereignty, combating Palestinian terrorism, and addressing Jewish terrorism, which damages Israel's international standing.

Rebuilding the military is another critical task, involving troop rotation, restoring combat readiness through training, and managing reserve forces. Alleviating the burden on reservists and their families is essential for the army's recovery. This is intertwined with political issues, such as the controversial draft exemption law and the integration of the ultra-Orthodox into military service, which the article frames as a national, not just military, problem.

Furthermore, Israel must maintain and expand its military alliances, built through joint exercises with regional air and naval forces. These alliances, extending from Greece and Cyprus to Arab and Gulf states, proved crucial during confrontations with Iran. However, U.S. actions have reportedly eroded trust among Gulf nations, potentially complicating future diplomatic and military cooperation.

Finally, preserving the quality of its human capital is paramount for the IDF. The article criticizes politicians for undermining the military, citing a defense minister's vote against a draft exemption bill as an example of a government acting against its own army's needs. The piece concludes that a strong, broadly supported military is vital for Israel's survival in the Middle East.