IAEA Board Refers Iran Nuclear Dossier to UN Security Council

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is calling for Iran to be held accountable for violating its obligations aimed at preventing the development of nuclear weapons. According to CNN's review of UN documents and interviews with former officials and diplomats, Iran has increasingly obstructed IAEA inspectors' work by limiting access to nuclear sites, disabling surveillance cameras, and subjecting inspectors to intrusive personal searches. On Wednesday, September 9, 23 member states of the IAEA Board of Governors voted to refer Iran's nuclear file to the UN Security Council, with Russia, China, and Niger voting against the measure. This decision marks another step in a saga spanning over a decade.

The 2015 nuclear agreement, designed to implement strict international oversight of Iran's nuclear program, initially saw Tehran complying with its terms and allowing inspections. However, following the US withdrawal from the deal in 2018 under President Donald Trump, Iran began systematically violating the agreed-upon limitations. The IAEA later concluded that Tehran had also concealed sites related to nuclear materials. A former US diplomat told CNN that Iran "truly played the IAEA for a fool, constantly hindering inspectors' access, and the explanations they gave were sometimes simply ridiculous and completely implausible." Some former IAEA officials and diplomats suggest the agency itself sometimes downplayed issues for political reasons to avoid direct confrontation with Tehran.

Experts now question whether even a diplomatic resolution or a new nuclear deal can guarantee Iran will not acquire a nuclear bomb. Physicist James Acton of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace estimates a "50-50" chance that Iran could develop a nuclear weapon within the next three years, citing both technical and political factors. The IAEA Board's decision is based on a June 2025 resolution that officially recognized Iran's non-compliance with its nuclear safeguards obligations. This referral to the UN Security Council, the last occurring in early 2006, could lead to renewed sanctions, though Russia and China's veto power presents a significant obstacle.

Iran's nuclear cooperation with the IAEA significantly decreased after a December 2020 law, passed following the assassination of a leading Iranian nuclear scientist, which also mandated accelerating uranium enrichment to 60%. While initial agreements allowed for storing IAEA data domestically, by mid-2021, Iran disabled surveillance cameras at a centrifuge production facility in Karaj, destroying one camera. By June 2022, Tehran demanded the removal of all IAEA monitoring equipment related to the nuclear deal. In January 2023, inspectors discovered an undeclared centrifuge configuration at the Fordow facility enriching uranium to 83.7%, close to weapons-grade levels. An experienced Russian inspector noted the anomaly, but Iran subsequently expelled him and other uranium enrichment experts, a move IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi called "a very serious blow" to the agency's monitoring capabilities.

Since February 2026, IAEA inspectors have been unable to access most Iranian nuclear sites, including those bombed by the US and Israel in June 2025. The agency has lost its "continuity of knowledge" regarding Iran's nuclear material and centrifuges since early 2021, meaning it can no longer confidently track the status, quantity, or location of these assets. "The IAEA is starting with a huge deficit of information about what is actually happening in Iran," said Eric Brewer, a former US National Security Council director. Re-establishing this baseline knowledge will be extremely difficult. The UN Security Council must now decide on potential measures against Iran, but the effectiveness of new sanctions is uncertain given existing US military and economic actions, and the potential for Russian and Chinese vetoes.