Israel's Election Landscape Shifts Amidst Shifting Alliances and International Pressure

Israel's Central Elections Committee received 38 candidate lists for the upcoming Knesset elections between September 7-8. The committee will review these lists for legal compliance until September 27, after which challenges and requests for disqualification can be filed. These challenges are expected to target Arab lists or their candidates, with the ruling coalition holding a majority on the committee. Any disqualification decisions, if upheld, could be appealed to the Israeli Supreme Court.

The opposition parties are forming three electoral blocs, including Benny Gantz's "National Unity" party, which polls suggest is currently the largest. While Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc appears unified, the opposition is still debating who would lead a potential alternative government, with discussions ranging from a unity government including Likud without Netanyahu to a coalition aiming to replace the current government.

Netanyahu's Likud party is facing internal divisions, exacerbated by primary elections. MK Tali Gottlieb has left Likud to join Itamar Ben-Gvir's party, which is competing with the Shas party for a similar voter base. Smotrich's alliance with Moshe Feiglin pushes the Religious Zionism party towards a more extreme stance on Palestinian issues, while a new party led by General Ofer Winter, "Am Israel Chai," challenges Smotrich's position.

Winter's party, ideologically aligned with Netanyahu, calls for the resignation of those responsible for the October 7 failures, implicitly targeting the current government. Netanyahu may see Winter's party as a strategic move to secure his own position and weaken the opposition, particularly Gantz, by drawing votes that might otherwise go to the opposition.

Netanyahu's influence within Likud appears to be waning, as he struggled to secure top spots on the party list for his preferred candidates. The list has become more right-wing, with the Religious Zionism faction gaining prominence, a shift from Netanyahu's earlier attempts to appeal to the center-right.

The Palestinian issue has become a central theme in the election campaign, influenced by recent international developments. The US Ambassador's visit to Turmus Ayya and subsequent US pressure on Israel to protect Palestinians, along with the eviction of illegal Israeli outposts, have created tension between Netanyahu and his religious Zionist allies. Furthermore, the UK and eleven other European and Western countries have imposed sanctions on settlements and their products, accusing Israel of ethnic cleansing and hindering the two-state solution. The US's lack of objection to these measures has raised concerns in Israel.

Adding to Netanyahu's challenges, reports of the UAE warning him directly about Hamas's plans before October 7, which were allegedly not shared with the military or national security council, have resurfaced. This has reignited calls for an official investigation and undermined Netanyahu's narrative blaming the military and Shin Bet for the intelligence failure.

The article suggests that the Palestinian issue, unlike Lebanon or Iran, is not beneficial to Netanyahu's campaign. It also notes that the opposition might inadvertently help Netanyahu if their criticism focuses solely on the October 7 failure without offering a clear political alternative or a vision for a political settlement.

Arab parties, specifically the Joint List and the United Arab List, could play a decisive role in forming the next government, potentially securing up to fourteen seats if disqualification attempts fail. Their votes could be crucial in preventing Netanyahu and his coalition from remaining in power, though they may not be able to dictate overall government policy.

The article concludes that the Israeli election is entering a critical and uncertain phase. The opposition appears more cohesive than the right-wing bloc, and a high turnout among Arab voters could be decisive. The stance of the US and European countries regarding the West Bank could also impact the election outcome, potentially favoring the opposition unless the right-wing bloc finds a way to recover.