Spanish Intelligence Warned of Ceuta Border Breach Days Before
Declassified reports from Spain's National Intelligence Center (CNI) reveal that intelligence agencies had warned both Moroccan and Spanish authorities about an impending mass border breach into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta approximately 24 hours before the event. Despite these warnings, the measures taken were insufficient to prevent the chaos that ensued, with tens of thousands of individuals attempting to cross the border.
According to the CNI reports, official notices were sent to Moroccan agencies DGST and DGED, as well as the Spanish government representative in Ceuta on July 29. The intelligence highlighted the active coordination of migrants through social media, with organizers mobilizing communities totaling around 180,000 participants. These groups were reportedly planning to exploit Morocco's Throne Day celebrations for a mass infiltration into Spanish territory, either by storming fences or swimming around breakwaters.
Escalating tensions were noted from July 25, when approximately 1,700 people arrived in Ceuta by sea, prompting the Spanish Ministry of Defense to speak of a "migratory chaos." By the night of July 29, a large number of people were already gathered on the Moroccan side, prepared to attempt the crossing. The intelligence and Interior Ministry reports also pointed to the passivity of Moroccan border guards, who, despite promises to deploy an additional thousand police and military personnel, only deployed limited special units on the day of the national holiday, failing to contain the crowd.
The publication of about forty reports, alerts, and dispatches from July has reignited political debate in Madrid. Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares stated that while the preparation for the breach was known, the intelligence services did not foresee the "catastrophic scale" of the influx. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez asserted that authorities lack evidence of direct organization by Moroccan authorities, though Spanish police and Interior Ministry assessments indicate inaction by Moroccan forces during critical hours.
This situation follows previous statements by Sánchez, who, citing a study by the European External Action Service (EEAS), accused Russia and Israel of spreading disinformation regarding the Ceuta migrant influx. He suggested both countries exploited the crisis to criticize the Spanish government amidst ongoing disputes with Moscow over Ukraine and with Israel over the Middle East conflict.
Six weeks after the events, the situation in Ceuta remains tense. Human rights organizations estimate that around 140 people died during the border breach. Currently, over 10,000 migrants, including unaccompanied minors, remain in the enclave, living in makeshift camps, on streets, and beaches, leading to near-daily protests by local residents dissatisfied with the government's crisis management.
