West Misunderstands Iran, Where Ideology Trumps Economy

For 47 years, the United States and other Western nations have imposed increasingly stringent sanctions on Iran, aiming to cripple its economy and force a change in its policies, yet the regime remains resilient. First imposed in November 1979 following the seizure of American diplomats, these sanctions have targeted Iran's oil, energy, banking, and various other key sectors, alongside arms and nuclear equipment embargoes and asset freezes on regime officials. Despite these measures, and even after the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal and a declared policy of "maximum pressure," Iran has seemingly endured, leading to questions about the effectiveness of the sanctions and the regime's survival.

The article posits that the West's approach is fundamentally flawed because it fails to grasp Iran's core ideology. Unlike Western regimes prioritizing citizen welfare, the Iranian revolutionary government's primary goal is exporting its Islamic revolution. This means the leadership is willing to sacrifice the living standards of ordinary citizens for ideological aims, a concept highlighted by Israeli Iran expert Prof. David Menashri. While the elite, including the Revolutionary Guards and Ayatollah Khamenei's family, maintain significant wealth and assets abroad, the general populace bears the brunt of the economic hardship.

The regime's continued stability is attributed to its willingness to use force against its own population, the pervasive fear it instills, and the demographic makeup of Iran. With 82% of the population born after the revolution or too young to remember it, two generations have been educated under a fervent, anti-Israel and anti-US religious doctrine. This, coupled with the government's control over information and the sheer size and organization of paramilitary groups like the Basij militia, makes widespread, effective opposition difficult.

Furthermore, the opposition lacks a unifying leader or cohesive structure, unlike historical movements in South Africa or Eastern Europe. While protests do occur, they represent a small fraction of the population, and many Iranians have a vested interest in the regime's survival, fearing loss of status, property, or life should it fall. The article suggests that after nearly five decades, a new strategy is needed, potentially involving direct confrontation with countries like China, which buys most of Iran's oil, or more aggressive measures against the personal assets of regime officials, moving beyond the current, seemingly ineffective, sanctions regime.