Netanyahu May Seek Broader Coalition Post-Election, Excluding Far-Right

Sources close to MK Itamar Ben-Gvir believe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is planning to form a broader government after the upcoming elections, potentially excluding the "Otzma Yehudit" party. This strategy, they suggest, would be pursued if Netanyahu can bring in figures like former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot. This assessment stems from an analysis of Netanyahu's past political behavior, where he has often preferred centrist coalitions over narrow right-wing ones. For instance, in 2009, he included Ehud Barak and the Labor party while keeping the National Union out, and in 2013, he initially partnered with Tzipi Livni before forming a government with Yesh Atid and the Jewish Home, leaving the ultra-Orthodox parties outside.

Ben-Gvir's circle argues that a move towards a more centrist coalition would likely require Netanyahu to abandon some key policies of the current right-wing government, particularly the judicial overhaul. They posit that incorporating a centrist party would necessitate significant compromises on judicial matters, allowing Netanyahu to present a more "statesmanlike" term, especially if this is perceived as one of his final political endeavors where legacy becomes a greater concern.

However, Ben-Gvir's associates acknowledge a counterargument: Otzma Yehudit could offer Netanyahu a stable, full-term partner within a right-wing bloc. Conversely, a coalition with Eisenkot might be ideologically diverse and potentially less stable. If the right-wing bloc secures 61 seats or more, excluding Ben-Gvir for Eisenkot could be a gamble for Netanyahu, opting for a broader but possibly less stable government.

One scenario considered is that Netanyahu might anticipate a centrist partner's potential departure, believing Otzma Yehudit could then join to extend the government's lifespan. More decisively, if the right-wing bloc fails to reach 61 seats even with Otzma Yehudit, Ben-Gvir's camp is convinced Netanyahu would prefer to bring in a centrist party rather than face another election. The key question, according to these sources, is not just the number of seats the right-wing bloc wins, but the extent of Netanyahu's options, which would increase the likelihood of him reverting to his historical pattern of broader coalitions with a balancing force to the left of the Likud.