Arab World Expert Warns Israel Against Lingering in Southern Lebanon
Arab world expert Danya Kolleilat Khatib has cautioned that Israel's continued military presence in southern Lebanon, particularly after securing the Ali al-Taher ridge, could inadvertently strengthen Hezbollah and destabilize the Lebanese government. Khatib expressed significant doubt regarding any potential Israeli withdrawal, citing ongoing road destruction, checkpoint establishment, and military entrenchment as indicators against such a move. She argued that this presence could embarrass pro-Israeli factions in Lebanon, such as the Lebanese Forces and the Phalange, who consistently blame Hezbollah for regional instability rather than viewing Israel as an expansionist power.
Khatib views Israel's actions in southern Lebanon as part of a broader regional strategy to maintain leverage in Gaza, southern Lebanon, and southern Syria. She noted extensive Israeli strikes in the Nabatieh area following the capture of the Ali al-Taher ridge, reportedly hitting civilian targets including a finance ministry building and a hospital. Lebanese President Michel Aoun has condemned these strikes and called for international pressure on Israel to withdraw.
Furthermore, Khatib questioned the effectiveness of U.S. pressure on Israel, referencing the inactivity of the "Peace Council" established by Donald Trump and the perceived inability of the U.S. to compel an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. She warned that a prolonged Israeli stay in southern Lebanon could escalate internal tensions, politically empower Hezbollah by allowing it to revive its "resistance" narrative, weaken the Lebanese state, and hinder efforts to disarm the organization.
Conversely, Khatib suggested that a successful Lebanese government negotiation leading to an Israeli withdrawal would enable Beirut to consolidate internal factions and confront Hezbollah from a stronger position. She highlighted a contradiction in Israeli policy, noting that while Israel desires Hezbollah's disarmament, its potential refusal to withdraw could paralyze the Lebanese government, preventing it from achieving this goal. Khatib concluded by emphasizing that Lebanon's decision to engage in direct negotiations was a significant, albeit controversial, step, and an Israeli refusal to withdraw would not only harm the current government but also deter future Lebanese administrations from similar diplomatic engagement.
