US Strategy on Gaza Plan Avoids Confrontation With Netanyahu Pre-Election
Washington strategists are calculating that a public confrontation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before the upcoming elections could inadvertently boost his political standing. The thinking is that Netanyahu would leverage such a clash to portray himself as a strong leader standing against international pressure, including from President Donald Trump. Therefore, the U.S. is opting to avoid direct conflict, a move that also explains why Washington is not currently pushing for the full implementation of the 15-point "roadmap" for Gaza, approved on July 30th as part of Trump's peace plan.
The roadmap outlines a transition from the current reality to a new one, involving the disarmament of Hamas and other armed groups under a "one authority, one weapon, one law" principle. It also details a phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the transfer of civilian authority to the Palestinian National Authority, the deployment of an international stabilization force, the establishment of a new Palestinian police force, and extensive reconstruction under Palestinian management. Crucially, it links Gaza's arrangements to a political track for Palestinian self-determination and statehood, offering an alternative to both Hamas rule and prolonged Israeli military control.
While politically astute, this avoidance of direct confrontation carries a significant risk: allowing Netanyahu and his allies to solidify facts on the ground that could undermine the peace plan and the political horizon for Palestinians. The West Bank is identified as the most dangerous arena, where extremist elements within Netanyahu's coalition aim to eliminate the possibility of a Palestinian state through actions like settlement expansion, displacement of Palestinian communities, and discussions of ethnic cleansing, making future territorial separation nearly impossible. This could ignite the next regional conflict.
To counter this, the U.S. must adopt a clear policy until the elections, moving beyond mere avoidance of conflict. This includes establishing private, clear, and credible red lines for Netanyahu, such as preventing initiated escalation in the West Bank, forced displacement of communities, annexation steps, or organized settler violence as a provocation strategy. While public pronouncements are unnecessary, Netanyahu must understand these red lines are serious and violations will have consequences. The U.S. should also increase its presence on the ground, with officials regularly visiting Palestinian communities threatened by violence, sending a message that terror is terror, regardless of the perpetrator's identity, and that allies are expected to enforce the law.
Simultaneously, the delay in implementing the Gaza roadmap cannot lead to a freeze. Continued stagnation strengthens Hamas and weakens the Palestinian alternative. The U.S. should use the pre-election period to finalize all possible arrangements for Gaza's governance, reconstruction, and security without public confrontation. This includes preparing the Palestinian government and police, readiness for the international force, and finalizing withdrawal maps. The goal is not to solve the entire Israeli-Palestinian conflict before the elections, but to prevent anyone from eliminating the possibility of a solution. Trump should focus on his objectives: ending wars, defeating terror, protecting Israel, preventing regional escalation, rebuilding Gaza, and creating a political horizon for Palestinians, rather than engaging in a public spat with Netanyahu that could aid his campaign.
