Netanyahu's List Shake-up Aims to Energize Base, Risks Collateral Damage

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is strategically reshuffling the Likud party's electoral list, introducing new faces to energize his core supporters and counter the appeal of rivals like Gadi Eisenkot. The move, spearheaded by figures like Yaakov Bardugo, aims to mobilize disillusioned right-wing voters by fostering a sense of renewed fighting spirit and presenting the Likud as a fresh option, rather than just a familiar slate.

This strategy directly challenges Eisenkot, who has been working to win over voters in the periphery by highlighting the previous government's perceived failures. Netanyahu's objective is to increase Likud's voter turnout from the base, believing a significant boost could alter the election outcome. The inclusion of new, prominent names is intended to create a more compelling narrative than the 'performance-oriented' professionals promised by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.

However, Netanyahu faces a significant challenge: the risk of inadvertently harming allied parties on the right. While the opposition bloc appears stable, parties like Bezalel Smotrich's and Ofer Winter's could fall below the electoral threshold, a scenario that would benefit Netanyahu little and could even be detrimental. In the 2022 elections, Netanyahu's bloc benefited from opposition parties failing to cross the threshold, but the situation has now reversed.

Netanyahu's primary campaign task will be to bolster the Likud's appeal with strong candidates without alienating or causing the collapse of parties he will need to form a coalition government. While a strong list can win headlines, crossing the electoral threshold is crucial for forming a government, suggesting the real test lies in balancing ambition with coalition needs.