Netanyahu Energizes Base, Risks Allies in Election Strategy

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is employing a strategy to re-energize his Likud party's base ahead of elections, leveraging figures like Yaakov Bardugo to mobilize disillusioned right-wing voters. Bardugo's role is not to persuade undecided voters but to ensure existing Likud supporters turn out to vote, a crucial tactic for Netanyahu to significantly alter election outcomes by increasing voter turnout from his base. This approach contrasts with that of Gadi Eisenkot, who has been working to appeal to voters in the periphery by highlighting the current government's perceived failures.

Netanyahu's recent efforts in finalizing the Likud's electoral list have introduced new names, presenting the party as a fresh option rather than a familiar one. This move appears to have shifted the narrative, with the Likud now appearing more dynamic than parties led by Benny Gantz and Eisenkot, who were previously seen as bringing new energy. However, this strategy carries significant risks for Netanyahu.

While opposition parties like Gantz's National Unity, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Arab parties appear secure above the electoral threshold, right-wing factions such as those led by Bezalel Smotrich and Ofer Winter are reportedly at risk of falling below it. Netanyahu faces the challenge of boosting the Likud's seat count, potentially to 30 or 35, without causing the collapse of allied parties essential for forming a future government. This mirrors the 2022 election dynamic in reverse, where Netanyahu's bloc benefited from opposition parties failing to cross the threshold, a situation now potentially reversed.

The success of Netanyahu's campaign will depend not only on showcasing strong candidates but also on expanding the Likud's support without alienating or eliminating potential coalition partners. While a strong list can generate headlines, ultimately, crossing the electoral threshold is what determines the ability to form a government.