Netanyahu Faces Crucial Deadline as Winter's Party Threatens Election Outcome

Israel's election race enters a critical phase as the deadline for submitting party lists approaches, with the political future of Ofer Winter's newly formed "Am Israel" party hanging in the balance. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a significant challenge in deciding how to handle Winter's party, which could potentially sway the election results. Despite submitting its list, Winter is reportedly refusing to withdraw, with intense pressure continuing until the last moment for him to unite with other factions.

Winter's party, announced just two weeks ago, could be decisive. If it surpasses the electoral threshold, it would bolster Netanyahu's bloc. However, if it falls short or inadvertently draws votes away from other right-wing parties like Smotrich's Religious Zionism, it could weaken the bloc. Netanyahu must weigh whether to politically undermine Winter or capitalize on the situation, especially concerning surplus vote agreements, where Winter's party could become the sixth in Netanyahu's bloc, enabling such agreements.

Meanwhile, in the "third bloc," a technical alliance has formed between Yoaz Hendel's "Mothers and Fathers" and Yaron Zelekha's economic party. This union could allow them to split and join either bloc if they pass the electoral threshold, but risks wasting votes if they don't. Benny Gantz's National Unity party remains in this bloc, despite consistently polling below the threshold and showing no signs of withdrawing, even as it has become a marginal force.

Recent polling indicates that both Winter's "Am Israel" and Smotrich's Religious Zionism are projected to pass the electoral threshold, with "Am Israel" garnering 4 seats and Religious Zionism 6. This scenario would strengthen Netanyahu's bloc by two seats compared to previous polls. Other parties, including Hendel and Zelekha's alliance, are shown to be close but not yet over the threshold, while Gantz's National Unity party is polling at just 1%.