Netanyahu's Move Puts Ben Gvir, Winter in Electoral Bind
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decision not to offer Ofer Winter a surplus agreement and instead approach the National Religious Party has created a new dilemma for both Winter and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir. Winter faces a difficult political choice: signing a surplus agreement with Ben Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party seems unlikely due to existing party relations and a desire to differentiate themselves from each other. An alternative, an agreement with Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, could provide ammunition for the Likud party's campaign, which already seeks to link Winter to Lieberman and the anti-Netanyahu bloc. While an electoral benefit might exist, such a move could alienate right-wing voters. Conversely, foregoing a surplus agreement altogether might reduce Winter's chances of securing an additional Knesset seat through the distribution of surplus votes.
For Ben Gvir, Netanyahu's decision is also significant. If the National Religious Party forms an agreement with Likud, Otzma Yehudit will need to find another partner for a surplus agreement or run alone. This situation impacts two parties to the right of Likud simultaneously: Ben Gvir loses his most natural surplus agreement partner, while Winter must decide whether to proceed without an agreement or seek a partner that could complicate his political messaging. The political establishment has characterized Netanyahu's move as a blow to Ben Gvir and a test for Winter.
A surplus agreement is a pre-election pact between two parties that influences the distribution of remaining Knesset seats after the initial allocation. Under the Badar-Ofer method, parties with such agreements can combine their strength for the surplus vote distribution, provided both pass the electoral threshold. While not guaranteeing an extra seat, it can improve a party's chances. Therefore, for Winter, the choice of a partner, if any, could also serve as a political statement about his party's positioning within the broader political landscape.
