Ultra-Orthodox Party Turmoil Won't Shift Coalition Alliances

Recent internal turmoil within the ultra-Orthodox Degel HaTorah party has sparked hopes on the Israeli left for a potential shift in political blocs. However, political realities, including the contentious conscription law and deep ideological divides, suggest the Haredi parties will remain firmly aligned with the right-wing bloc and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Despite pronouncements from figures like MK Moshe Gafni, who has a history of making statements about potentially aligning with the left, analysts argue that Haredi parties lack viable partners on the left. These past declarations, often made during election cycles, have been seen as rhetorical rather than indicative of a genuine shift, and some suggest they have even contributed to younger Haredi voters seeking alternatives within right-wing parties like Likud and Otzma Yehudit.

While Netanyahu's government initially delayed the conscription law, the article points to the Haredi parties themselves as ultimately obstructing its passage. The piece argues that Haredi parties cannot realistically join a left-wing government due to fundamental ideological opposition, particularly concerning issues of religion and state, especially in the post-October 7th political climate.

The article contends that the left-wing bloc, having engaged in what it calls a "poison campaign" and holding strong stances on conscription, would be unable to offer a better deal than what was previously on the table, a deal the Haredi parties themselves rejected. Furthermore, the Haredi parties are described as unwilling to sit in a coalition with parties perceived as hostile to religious values, whose electoral promises include undermining religious traditions.

The author expresses hope that new representatives within Degel HaTorah will focus on constructive action and recognize that their constituency largely identifies with the right-wing camp.