Ultra-Orthodox Voters Divided on Party Loyalty, Seek Change in Polls

A recent poll conducted by 'Kikar HaShabbat' and analyzed by 'Super Data' reveals significant shifts in the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) voting bloc ahead of upcoming elections. While 73% of respondents expressed certainty in voting, 11% indicated they would not participate, and 14% remained undecided. Political analysts suggest that despite current dissatisfaction, many Haredi voters will ultimately return to traditional parties like Shas and United Torah Judaism, especially if called upon by rabbinical leaders.

A striking trend observed is the growing support for far-right parties, particularly Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit, among Haredi voters. Seventeen percent of respondents feel Ben-Gvir better represents them than the established Haredi parties, which have seen a decline in current poll numbers compared to past election results. This drift to the right is attributed to a general right-wing sentiment and disappointment with the government's handling of the conscription law.

The conscription law emerged as the paramount issue for Haredi voters, with 61% citing it as their primary voting consideration, far outweighing economic concerns. Shockingly, 43% of Haredi respondents indicated a preference for a center-left government if it would pass the conscription law, compared to 25% willing to accept a right-wing government with stricter conscription terms. This suggests a willingness to prioritize the conscription issue over traditional political alignments.

Furthermore, the poll highlights a strong demand for internal party reform. Seventy-three percent of Haredi voters desire primary elections within their parties, and 46% believe it is time to replace all incumbent Haredi Knesset members, a sentiment particularly strong among United Torah Judaism voters. One proposed solution involves a hybrid system where rabbinical leaders approve a list of eligible candidates from which the public would select and rank their preferred choices.

Finally, the analysis addressed the emergence of new protest parties within the Haredi sector. While a portion of voters expressed interest or indecision regarding these new factions, most panelists believe they will not overcome the electoral threshold, arguing they offer no substantial alternative and that voters will ultimately revert to established parties.