Critical Infrastructure Vulnerable to Unforeseen Threats, Resilience is Key
A recent article published in the German publication The European, and slated for inclusion in a 200,000-copy collection for the Frankfurt Summit, argues that modern states cannot fully protect all critical infrastructure from every possible threat. The author contends that the primary focus must shift to the ability of systems to continue functioning after an attack, accident, or unforeseen event. This issue is directly relevant to Israel, as illustrated by recent incidents involving Germany's energy grid and Israel's desalination plants.
The article draws parallels between military planning, which anticipates future threats, and the challenges facing civilian infrastructure. While military spending on defense is considered essential for national survival, civilian infrastructure, such as power substations, data centers, and water facilities, has become equally vital but was not built with the same level of threat anticipation. Engineers typically design for known or foreseeable loads and accidents, with security measures often added reactively after incidents.
Recent events highlight this vulnerability. In early September, homemade devices were used to cause short circuits on high-voltage power lines in Germany, forcing RWE to shut down five power units. The perpetrators remain unknown, but the incident demonstrated how simple means can disrupt expensive infrastructure. Almost simultaneously, five of Israel's six major Mediterranean desalination plants were temporarily halted due to an unusually high concentration of microalgae, likely from the Nile Delta. While not an attack, this natural event exposed a specific vulnerability not previously accounted for.
The author posits that while specific threats can be addressed with additional filters or backup systems, the next crisis may manifest differently. The core issue is that every technological advancement, while solving a problem, creates new dependencies and vulnerabilities. The cost of implementing comprehensive, multi-layered security for all critical infrastructure is substantial, ultimately impacting consumers through tariffs and taxes.
Israel's desalination plant shutdown, though disruptive, did not lead to a water shortage due to the National Water Company Mekorot's ability to increase extraction from wells and the Sea of Galilee, and to implement emergency measures for agriculture and public areas. These were pre-existing reserves not tied to a single specific threat, echoing the concept of "searching for safety" described by Aaron Wildavsky, which emphasizes maintaining reserves for unpredictable events.
Germany's new KRITIS-Dachgesetz, effective March 17, 2026, mandates that infrastructure operators analyze risks, implement protective measures, and ensure rapid service restoration. The law requires operators to determine which functions must remain operational, which can be temporarily offline, and what needs redundancy or quick repair. The article concludes that while societies are creating increasingly indispensable systems, the number of ways to disrupt them is also growing, presenting a fundamental contradiction with no clear solution yet.
