Turkey's 'Blue Homeland' Doctrine Fuels Regional Tensions with Israel

Turkey, once an early ally of Israel, has shifted to a more assertive foreign policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, driven by a desire to re-establish itself as a leading Islamic power. This shift is underpinned by the 'Blue Homeland' doctrine, which aims to expand Turkish maritime sovereignty in the Eastern Mediterranean and beyond. The doctrine, adopted in 2019, seeks energy independence, strategic control of the Turkish Straits, and military buildup, particularly strengthening the navy.

This expansionist policy has led to increased tensions with Greece and Cyprus over maritime boundaries and energy exploration rights. Turkey challenges Greek sovereignty in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, disputes island maritime zones, and actively obstructs joint energy projects involving Cyprus, Greece, and Israel. Turkey also seeks to control the Eastern Mediterranean gas pipeline project intended to transport gas from Israel and Cyprus to Europe, threatening military confrontation to prevent its completion.

Turkey is also extending its influence into North Africa and the Horn of Africa, signing maritime and security agreements with Libya and strengthening ties with Somalia, where it operates its largest overseas military base. These moves are seen as attempts to block potential energy routes for Israel and Greece and gain control over vital shipping lanes. In response, Israel has recognized Somaliland and is reportedly discussing establishing a naval base there, aiming to counter Turkish influence in the region.

In Syria, Turkey occupies a significant buffer zone in the north, increasing the potential for direct confrontation with Israel, which operates in the south and center of the country. Experts worry Turkey might leverage its presence to create military pressure on Israel's northern border. Meanwhile, Israel is bolstering its strategic alliances, particularly with Greece and Cyprus, through joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and defense agreements, including a significant deal for an advanced air defense system for Greece.

Regionally, Turkey is forming a strategic axis with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, potentially including Egypt, aiming for an independent regional security architecture. This bloc, along with alliances with Qatar and Libya, raises concerns for Israel. Despite escalating rhetoric and actions, direct military conflict between Turkey and Israel is considered unlikely in the short term due to their shared alliance with the United States and existing communication channels, though the risk of escalation is growing.