Turkey's Assertive Regional Policy Raises Tensions with Greece, Israel
Turkey is pursuing an increasingly assertive foreign policy in the Eastern Mediterranean and Syria, raising concerns among regional players like Greece and Israel. Experts warn that Ankara's actions, including incursions into Greek airspace and the establishment of "maritime parks," are part of a broader strategy to expand its influence and control, often referred to as the "Blue Homeland" doctrine. These moves are seen as attempts to create "fait accomplis" that solidify Turkish claims without resolving underlying disputes.
The tensions are particularly evident around the Great Sea Interconnector project, a subsea cable intended to link the power grids of Greece, Cyprus, and eventually Israel. Turkey asserts its consent is required for work in disputed waters, while Greece and Cyprus view this as an effort to extend Turkish control over their sovereign rights. The involvement of French infrastructure company Meridiam adds a European dimension, though experts caution that this alone may not deter Turkish actions.
Sinan Ciddi, director of the Turkish program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), highlights Turkey's "Blue Homeland" doctrine as a driving force behind its actions. He points to the deployment of armed drones and F-16s in Northern Cyprus and rapprochement with Eastern Libya as evidence of this strategy. Ciddi suggests that Turkey feels emboldened, potentially due to perceived support from the United States, citing President Trump's positive remarks and the U.S. response to an Israeli strike in Syria.
In Syria, Turkey is reportedly seeking to build up the military and police capabilities of a new regime, aiming to create a "client state" that enhances its ability to harm Israel and solidifies its regional dominance. There are also indications that Turkey explored using Syrian military bases, though official Turkish statements have downplayed intentions of conflict with Israel. Israel, meanwhile, has stated it will strike any military buildup in Syria it deems a threat.
Despite Turkey's accusations of Israeli violations of Syrian sovereignty, Ciddi characterizes this as a double standard, given Turkey's own military operations in Syria. The U.S. is reportedly working to establish a mechanism to prevent accidental clashes between Israel, Turkey, and Syria. The broader implications for Greece and Cyprus involve assessing the extent of Turkey's regional ambitions and whether Washington will set limits.
