Rehovot Mirrors National Vote, Dubbed 'Israel's Ohio'

An analysis of the 2022 Israeli election results reveals that Rehovot most accurately reflected the overall national voting patterns, earning it the nickname 'Israel's Ohio.' This designation is inspired by the U.S. state of Ohio, historically a bellwether for presidential elections. Following Rehovot in mirroring national results are Petah Tikva, Haifa, and Hadera. Conversely, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, along with predominantly ultra-Orthodox and Arab cities, showed the most significant deviations from the national vote.

The study, conducted by real estate data company Madlan and reported by ynet, examined cities with populations over 50,000. Rehovot's voting distribution closely aligned with the national outcome, with a mere 2.05 percentage point average difference across 13 major parties. For instance, Likud received 25.7% in Rehovot compared to 23.4% nationally, and Yesh Atid garnered 23.1% locally versus 17.8% nationwide.

Cities like Petah Tikva, Netanya, Holon, and Rosh Ha'ayin also demonstrated strong similarities to the national vote. Haifa stood out as the only city in the top tier where Yesh Atid surpassed Likud. In contrast, cities such as Elad, Bnei Brak, Beitar Illit, and Modi'in Illit showed overwhelming support for specific ultra-Orthodox parties, while Umm al-Fahm saw a strong preference for Arab parties, with Jewish parties receiving less than 5% of the vote.

Madlan CEO Tal Kopel explained that cities reflecting the national vote possess a diverse mix of political leanings, with no single bloc dominating. He characterized these "mini-Israel" cities as mid-sized, established urban centers in central Israel and along the coastal plain, representing a socioeconomic and geographic middle ground. This contrasts with cities at the lower end of the spectrum, which exhibit strong sectoral identities.

The article notes that Rehovot's reputation as a predictor of national election winners has waned in recent years due to a series of closely contested elections, similar to how Ohio's status as a reliable swing state ended with the 2020 election.