Israel Sees New Syrian Chapter, Cautions Against Concessions
Israeli analysts and near-official positions suggest Syria has entered a new historical phase, a development underscored by the US removing Syria from its state sponsors of terrorism list. This move is seen as positive for improving Syria's economy, global integration, and regional stability. The US had placed Syria on the list in 1979 due to its involvement in the Lebanese War and support for Palestinian militant groups.
Many countries, including some close to Israel, are expected to assist Syria with reconstruction. However, Syria still faces security challenges, needs to rebuild state institutions, and address internal issues with its Druze and Kurdish populations. Some experts believe economic aid will help alleviate these challenges, giving Damascus more leverage.
From an Israeli perspective, Syria has earned this new chapter by actively disrupting Iranian arms shipments intended for Hezbollah via the "land bridge" from Iran through Iraq to Lebanon. Syrian security forces reportedly intercepted a large Iranian arms shipment at the Tanf border crossing with Iraq, hidden in an oil tanker bound for Baniyas refinery, with Hezbollah in Lebanon as the final destination. Another shipment of Grad missiles, long-range rockets, and drones smuggled via the same Iraqi route was also seized.
This anti-Iranian and, by extension, anti-Hezbollah stance is viewed by Israel as a hardening of Syria's policy amid escalating regional tensions. Israeli think tanks note that Damascus has deliberately distanced itself from Tehran, reportedly drawing threats from Iran.
Israel believes it needs to establish a different relationship with Damascus but cautions against relinquishing strategically valuable positions it occupies within Syria based solely on promises. Any withdrawal must be contingent on enforceable security arrangements, including disarmament and preventing hostile forces' presence. Israel should not view these developments as a prelude to a stable, long-term alliance, given Syria's internal fragility, competing armed factions, unresolved sectarian tensions, and Turkey's expanding influence.
Therefore, Israel must closely monitor developments and avoid making concessions to Damascus for mere moderate statements. Any Israeli concession must be matched by tangible Syrian commitments. Furthermore, Israel must signal that the replacement of Iranian military influence with Turkish military presence is an unacceptable strategic outcome. Israel's goal should be a stable Syria that prevents Iran and Hezbollah from using its territory, respects its minority communities, and does not become a military platform for another regional power.
