Syria Balances Fragile Relations Amid Iranian, Turkish, and Israeli Pressures

Syria is navigating a precarious balance in its relations with Iran, Turkey, and Israel amid ongoing regional tensions and internal instability. Damascus has intensified efforts to disrupt Iranian weapons smuggling routes to Hezbollah and to undermine Hezbollah’s logistical networks within Syria. These moves, despite Iranian warnings of potential attacks on over 100 targets in Syria, reflect a strategic shift away from Tehran, creating a rare opportunity for Israel to weaken Hezbollah’s military capabilities.

The Syrian government, led by interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, faces significant internal challenges, including fragmented military factions and unresolved sectarian conflicts, particularly between Druze and Alawite communities. The Syrian army remains a patchwork of competing armed groups with divided loyalties, complicating efforts to establish unified national command. Meanwhile, Turkey has emerged as a key security partner, actively training and reorganizing Syrian forces and potentially expanding its military presence, which could limit Israel’s operational freedom in Syrian airspace.

Israel maintains positions inside Syria to prevent hostile forces from approaching its borders, but faces increasing diplomatic pressure from the US and Europe to withdraw. Any Israeli pullback is expected to be contingent on enforceable security guarantees, including demilitarization of southern Syria, protection of minority populations, and restrictions on foreign military deployments, especially Turkish forces.

The evolving dynamics present both opportunities and risks for Israel. Syria’s distancing from Iran and confrontation with Hezbollah’s supply lines could reshape the regional balance, but Syria’s internal fragility and Turkey’s growing influence pose new strategic challenges. Israeli policy must carefully weigh these factors, demanding concrete commitments from Damascus and avoiding concessions based solely on verbal assurances. Ultimately, Israel aims for a stable Syria that blocks Iranian and Hezbollah influence without becoming a Turkish military foothold.

The analysis was provided by Oded Eilem, former head of the Mossad’s counterterrorism division, and retired Colonel Dr. Jack Neria, former senior IDF intelligence officer and political advisor.