Israeli Study Warns Jordan Border Could Become Next Major Attack Front

A new study by Prof. Gabi Siboni and Brig. Gen. (res.) Erez Weiner warns that Israel's eastern border with Jordan can no longer be considered quiet or stable. The researchers highlight Jordan's internal weaknesses, Iranian attempts to infiltrate the area, and ongoing smuggling of weapons and drugs as factors that necessitate a shift in Israel's security approach. They caution that a large-scale surprise attack similar to the October 7 attacks could emerge from the east.

The study emphasizes that while Jordan remains a key strategic partner and its Hashemite regime's stability is a top Israeli security interest, Israel cannot rely solely on security cooperation with Amman. Instead, it must build independent capabilities to handle scenarios involving regime weakening or loss of border control. Jordan faces multiple internal challenges including a prolonged economic crisis, high unemployment, water shortages, heavy national debt, and a complex demographic makeup with a majority of Palestinian origin. The influence of extremist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and jihadist organizations has increased pressure on the monarchy.

The report details Iranian and proxy efforts to use Jordan as a new front against Israel, including arms and drug smuggling via the Syria-Jordan border, drone-based weapon transfers, and the establishment of pro-Iranian militias near the Israeli border. These trends risk turning the eastern border into an active conflict zone.

Siboni and Weiner warn of a potential surprise attack involving militants or armed vehicles breaching multiple points along the border to quickly reach settlements in the Jordan Valley and Highway 90. Without a proper barrier and rapid response forces, Israel could face unprecedented mass-casualty events.

To counter these threats, the authors recommend accelerating the construction of a border barrier with Jordan, strengthening the eastern division, expanding intelligence and reconnaissance capabilities, deploying drone detection and interception systems, and increasing rapid response forces. They also stress reinforcing settlements and farms in the Jordan Valley as a critical part of regional defense.

Alongside military measures, the study calls for continued and enhanced cooperation with Jordan in water, energy, and economic sectors, while demanding decisive action from Amman against smuggling and anti-Israel incitement. The authors conclude by urging Israel not to repeat past mistakes and to prioritize building strength on the eastern front, which could become the next major security challenge.