Signs Mount of a Potential Jordan Border Crisis as Security Warnings Grow
Two weeks ago, late at night, an Israeli Navy commander spotted a suspicious craft trying to cross from Jordanian waters toward the hotel area of Eilat. The vessel rammed it and forced it back to the Jordanian shore. Security officials later said the craft was actually a remotely operated jet ski, likely used to test alertness, locate surveillance cameras, measure Navy response time, and map coverage gaps.
The incident comes as concern rises over Israel's eastern frontier. According to the report, Shin Bet chief David Zini warned in closed discussions that “the next October 7 could be in Eilat.” The warning is not said to be based on specific intelligence, but it has revived questions about whether Jordan, which has had peace with Israel for 32 years, could become the next arena of conflict.
Experts quoted in the report say relations are at one of their lowest points since the 1994 peace treaty, largely because of the war in Gaza and its impact on Jordanian domestic politics. Prof. Yoav Alon of Tel Aviv University said the two countries are “maybe at the deepest low point in relations since the peace agreement was signed,” and added that it is fair to ask whether soldiers remain as motivated to defend the border as before.
Jordan is also under mounting economic strain, with public debt at about 83% of GDP, average annual growth of roughly 2.5% over the past decade, unemployment above 20%, and female labor participation around 15%. The World Bank approved a $1.1 billion loan last year to spur growth and jobs. At the same time, millions of refugees from Syria and Iraq add pressure on infrastructure and budgets, while the kingdom remains heavily dependent on Israeli gas for more than 80% of its electricity.
Public hostility toward Israel is widespread, with about half the population estimated to be of Palestinian origin and surveys showing roughly 60% supported Hamas's October 7 attack. The report says this anger has strengthened the Muslim Brotherhood and its political arm, the Islamic Action Front, which tripled its strength in Jordan's September 2024 election and became the largest party in parliament. Iran is also described as exploiting the vacuum by backing propaganda, Shiite conversion efforts, and pro-Iranian militias.
Israeli and captured Hamas documents are said to show that Jordan is a major corridor for weapons smuggling into Judea and Samaria, including rifles, land mines, explosives, rockets, and launchers. One route runs from southern Syria through Bedouin smugglers into Israel, and another from Iraq into Jordan and then to the West Bank. Jordanian forces are trying to stop this, including airstrikes on smugglers in southern Syria, deployments along the 360-kilometer border, and cooperation with Israel and the United States. Alon said he does not see a viable alternative to King Abdullah II, because opposition groups are not politically organized enough to threaten the regime.
