Azerbaijan Distances Itself from Israel Amid Growing Security and Diplomatic Shifts

The longstanding security partnership between Israel and Azerbaijan is showing signs of strain as Azerbaijan increasingly criticizes Israel and shifts closer to the Palestinian Authority and Turkey. This change follows Israel's government recognition of the Armenian genocide, which drew sharp condemnation from Baku and halted the official recognition process in the Knesset. Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev's senior advisor, Hikmat Hajiyev, emphasized that supporting Turkey's interests remains a top priority, reflecting Azerbaijan's alignment with Ankara's foreign policy and growing ties with the Palestinians.

Despite a recent significant government-to-government deal involving Rafael Advanced Defense Systems' Spike tactical missiles and torpedoes worth hundreds of millions of dollars, Israeli defense companies fear a decline in future contracts. American defense firms, including Lockheed Martin, Boeing, RTX, and notably Ondes led by former Mossad chief Dedi Barnea, have intensified their efforts to penetrate the Azerbaijani market. Ondes benefits from Israeli executives familiar with Azerbaijani culture and business, giving it a competitive edge.

South Korea is also courting Azerbaijan by offering frigates equipped with its own defense systems, potentially reducing Azerbaijan's reliance on Israeli military technology. Diplomatic tensions are mirrored in Azerbaijan's cautious public stance on Israeli defense products and its vocal criticism in local media and social networks, which increasingly reflect pro-Turkish sentiments.

A major pending issue is Azerbaijan's delayed decision on a strategic satellite communications tender valued between $300 million and $800 million. Israel Aerospace Industries is among the finalists competing against Thales Alenia Space and Turkey's TUSAŞ. Although the decision has been postponed for unclear reasons, Israel Aerospace Industries remains a strong contender due to its advanced technology and existing contracts with Azerbaijan.

Overall, the combination of diplomatic friction, increased competition from American and other foreign defense companies, and Azerbaijan's strategic realignment suggests a shrinking role for Israel in Azerbaijan's defense procurement in the coming years. Israeli officials acknowledge that while some niche areas like airborne early warning and long-range radar may remain, the broader partnership faces significant challenges ahead.