China Conducts Rare Nuclear Submarine Missile Test Capable of Reaching US Mainland

China announced on Monday a rare test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from a nuclear-powered submarine in the Pacific Ocean. This is the first such test since a similar one about two years ago, which itself was the first in over 40 years. The missile reportedly hit its target area accurately, though Chinese state media did not specify the missile type or exact launch location. The test was described as routine and compliant with international law, not directed against any country.

Chinese media later identified the missile as likely the JL-3, a new submarine-launched ICBM designed to carry nuclear warheads. The JL-3 was unveiled during Beijing's large military parade last year, showcasing China's nuclear triad capability to launch nuclear weapons from land, sea, and air. According to a 2023 Pentagon report, the JL-3's long range allows it to strike the US mainland even when launched from submarines near China's coast.

This test follows a September 2024 ground-launched ICBM test, the first since 1980, which raised regional concerns about China's accelerating military buildup. The expansion of China's nuclear arsenal is significant, with an estimated 600 warheads in 2024 expected to reach 1,000 by 2030. China is also expanding its naval fleet, currently operating six nuclear missile submarines and 59 nuclear-powered attack submarines.

Experts like Jeffrey Lewis from Middlebury College interpret these tests as signaling a new era of frequent missile trials, enhancing China's nuclear deterrence confidence. The tests have drawn condemnation from regional neighbors including Australia, Japan, and New Zealand, who view them as destabilizing. New Zealand's Foreign Minister Winston Peters criticized the test despite prior notification from China. Australia condemned the launch during a visit to Fiji, coinciding with a new Australia-Fiji security pact amid US-China rivalry in the Pacific.

Taiwan also condemned the test, calling it an attempt to intimidate the international community. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg highlighted the test as a clear message to the alliance, emphasizing the global relevance of Pacific security developments ahead of the NATO summit in Turkey.