Goldman Sachs Predicts 9% US Job Loss from AI but Foresees New Opportunities

Joseph Briggs, head of the global economics team at Goldman Sachs Research, warned that artificial intelligence could displace about 9% of the US workforce, equivalent to roughly 15 million jobs. Speaking on the bank's "Exchanges" podcast, Briggs compared this shift to the technological upheaval of the late 1990s and early 2000s, emphasizing that affected workers will need to leave their current roles and find new employment.

Briggs noted that sectors already using AI tools, such as high-tech, management consulting, and graphic design, have seen a reduction of 10,000 to 15,000 jobs in monthly employment growth. However, he rejected the notion held by many tech leaders that jobs will disappear permanently, highlighting that this view overlooks the creation of new roles. He cited historical data showing that over the past 80 years, approximately 85% of job growth was driven by new positions emerging from technological changes.

The labor market is dynamic, with about 30 million jobs created and 29 million eliminated annually. Briggs suggested that even a 5% acceleration in job creation could absorb all workers displaced by AI. Neil Thompson from MIT, also featured on the podcast, argued that AI adoption will be slower than its technical capabilities suggest due to challenges like data access and cost, especially in regulated fields such as healthcare.

Thompson explained that most jobs will be partially automated rather than fully eliminated, with outcomes depending on specific tasks. He compared AI’s impact to the introduction of GPS for taxi drivers, which lowered wages but increased the number of drivers. He described AI as a "rising tide" that workers can anticipate and prepare for, rather than a "crashing wave" that overwhelms them.