Goldman Sachs Predicts AI Will Replace 9% of Global Workforce, Impacting 15 Million Jobs

Goldman Sachs' head of global economics research, Joseph Briggs, forecasts that artificial intelligence adoption will replace approximately 9% of the workforce worldwide, equating to around 15 million jobs. Speaking on the bank's podcast, Briggs compared this shift to the technological upheaval experienced in the late 1990s and early 2000s. He emphasized that affected workers will need to leave their current roles and seek new employment opportunities.

The impact of AI is already evident in sectors like high-tech, management consulting, and graphic design, where the technology is widely used. Briggs estimates that AI currently reduces monthly employment growth by 10,000 to 15,000 jobs. However, he rejects claims that these jobs will vanish permanently, arguing that new roles created by technological innovation historically drive 85% of job growth over the past 80 years. In a dynamic labor market where about 30 million jobs open and 29 million close annually, even a 5% increase in job creation could absorb those displaced by AI.

MIT researcher Neil Thompson offered a more cautious perspective, suggesting that AI's real-world impact will unfold gradually rather than rapidly. He noted that AI systems require access to accurate data and must be cost-effective, which limits their immediate adoption, especially in sensitive fields like medicine. Thompson highlighted that most jobs will experience partial automation rather than complete elimination, with outcomes depending on specific tasks assigned to machines. He compared AI’s influence to the introduction of GPS navigation, which reduced taxi drivers’ spatial knowledge but increased the total number of drivers. Thompson described AI as a "rising tide" that workers can anticipate and adapt to, rather than a sudden disruptive wave.