Israel May Declare Hamas Breach of Agreement, Raising Risk of Renewed Gaza Conflict

Israeli officials anticipate that within two to three months, the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Council may officially declare that Hamas has violated their agreement. This declaration would grant Israel broader military freedom to operate within Gaza, including areas under Hamas control, potentially leading to renewed fighting in the region. The decision is expected around September, amid political preparations for Israel's October elections.

Despite Hamas suffering significant losses and territorial reduction during the recent conflict, it continues to maintain control over parts of Gaza and is reportedly rearming. Israeli assessments suggest that voluntary disarmament by Hamas is unlikely, and if the group does not relinquish its weapons, Israel may be compelled to take direct military action.

Nikolay Mladenov, the Peace Council's director responsible for implementing the agreement, had planned to declare Hamas in breach two months ago but postponed the announcement at the request of mediators seeking to give Hamas more time to comply. A senior Israeli official told Channel 12 News that if Hamas's behavior does not change in the coming months, Mladenov will proceed with the declaration.

Such a move would significantly expand Israel's operational scope in Gaza, removing current restrictions and enabling more extensive military activity. This development comes nearly a thousand days after the October 7 attack and reflects ongoing tensions and strategic calculations ahead of the upcoming elections.