Musk’s $28 Trillion SpaceX Vision Revives Bubble Fears Around AI and Space Stocks
SpaceX’s blockbuster listing has reignited debate over whether market valuations are running far ahead of fundamentals. Dr. Gali Ingbar, head of finance and economics at the College of Management, said SpaceX is burning cash quickly, with only its satellite business profitable, and noted that the company is now valued at $2.5 trillion after raising $75 billion in what the article describes as the largest IPO ever. She said the gap between financial results and market value raises “red flags,” especially as more AI-related offerings are expected soon.
Ingbar defined a bubble as a company whose market price becomes detached from its intrinsic value, which should reflect financial performance. She said NYU professor Aswath Damodaran valued SpaceX at $1.25 trillion based on its prospectus, still far below the IPO valuation of $1.77 trillion and the $2.1 trillion reached after the first trading day. Even that lower figure, she argued, is excessive for a loss-making company that ended 2025 with a roughly $5 billion loss.
SpaceX reported about $19 billion in revenue, mostly from Starlink, and more than $41 billion in cumulative losses since 2002. That implies a price-to-sales multiple of about 95, compared with Nvidia’s roughly 36 price-to-earnings multiple. Ingbar said the valuation is driven largely by Elon Musk himself, citing Tesla’s rise after years of losses as proof that investors buy into his persona, vision, and even his “caprices.”
She also warned that Musk retains about 40% of the shares but 85% of the voting power, meaning outside investors have little influence. SpaceX says it aims to eventually build a human colony on Mars and admits it may never become profitable. Ingbar said the company’s space division has a real business base through NASA and U.S. government contracts, while Starlink is profitable with about $11.5 billion in revenue, around 60% gross margins, and more than 10,000 satellites serving 150 countries.
She added that the valuation story is also tied to AI, including Musk’s idea of space-based data centers to cut cooling and electricity costs. Musk has even spoken of a $28 trillion potential market for SpaceX, which Ingbar called impossible to verify and evidence of his ability to sell a story to investors. She said upcoming IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI, at about $1 trillion and $850 billion respectively, should also be watched closely, though bubbles are only obvious after they burst.
