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Economy03:00 · Jun 10

Three Giant IPOs on the Horizon: Dreams Set to Burst or Promises Set to Come True?

Calcalist
Translated & summarized from Calcalist by baba
The story · English

Say goodbye to FAANG and the Magnificent Seven, and get used to MANGOS. The tropical fruit is Wall Street’s new abbreviation, Meta, Anthropic, Nvidia, Google, OpenAI, SpaceX, as the market prepares to absorb three giant companies within half a year. After the IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic, the club of the hottest and most sought-after stocks will shift toward AI, and whoever becomes part of “MANGO” will set the tone in the technology world for years to come. Alongside the three IPOs of the AI companies, which are still privately held for now, the group includes Nvidia (N), Google (G) and Meta (M). At first, when the new acronym was only coined in New York, there was still uncertainty about whether Microsoft would be the M, but recently, after a series of major moves by Mark Zuckerberg in artificial intelligence, it was finally decided that the company once known as Facebook would hold the prestigious M.

The night before last, OpenAI revealed that it had submitted a confidential prospectus for an initial public offering in the United States. It did so just one week after a similar announcement by Anthropic, its bitter rival, which is competing with it for the title of the world’s largest and most important AI company. Both are doing this in the middle of the road show for the other nemesis, Elon Musk, whose AI company, with the bonus of rockets and space flights, is expected to begin trading on Friday in New York. Each member of the trio wants to win the title of “the largest IPO in history,” which is currently held by oil giant Aramco, which went public at a valuation of $1.7 trillion in 2020 on the Saudi exchange. Unless something unusual happens, that record will be broken this coming Friday by Musk, since reports in the United States say SpaceX already has commitments to raise $10 billion from institutional investors, and it is allocating about a third of the offering for direct sale to retail investors, who are expected to rush in. Musk’s company will likely be valued at $1.75 trillion to $1.8 trillion.

Anthropic and OpenAI have not yet said how much they want to raise, but the estimate is that each is targeting $60 billion at a valuation of more than $1 trillion. In fact, a $1 trillion valuation would be somewhat disappointing for both companies, which have completed unprecedented private fundraisings in recent months. Anthropic raised $65 billion at a valuation of $965 billion, and since then, on secondary platforms for trading private shares, its valuation has crossed the $1 trillion mark. Sam Altman led OpenAI to an even more unusual fundraising of $122 billion, increased from $110 billion in light of demand and closed at a valuation of $852 billion, at which the company currently continues to trade on secondary platforms as well, though without crossing the trillion-dollar threshold.

Why are companies whose cash coffers are supposedly overflowing with money rushing to go public now, and just as importantly, what does this say about the stock market itself and its valuation? First and foremost, all three companies, as well as the technology sector as a whole, are not missing the rally in the indexes, from the S&P 500 to the Nasdaq, all of which are trading at historic highs. They have already posted gains of about 10% in less than half a year, and at last, after several positive years, have succeeded in reopening the IPO market. The original expectation was that the IPO window for tech companies would reopen in 2025, but that did not happen. However, 2026 is already better than any of the past four years, and if the holy trinity of AI IPOs is completed before the end of the year, it will be even better than 2021. Total proceeds from initial public offerings in 2026 stand at $87.5 billion, compared with about $283 billion in 2021, which broke all records.

Here it is also important to note the changes in the identity of investors in public markets in recent years. Since the coronavirus pandemic and the rise of stock-trading apps, young retail investors have become an important driving force in the capital markets. This is not happening only on Nasdaq, but is also clearly felt on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. Until now, these young investors have not had access to the large AI companies, which were financed by venture capital funds, to which only institutional investors or very large and wealthy private investors have access. In recent years, young investors have shown that they most like to invest in the companies behind the software and apps they use and believe in, so the AI giants have something to work with.

Still, the three giant IPOs also contain an element of a race and a desire not to miss the liquidity train. After all, the sums involved are historically large, on the one hand. On the other hand, disappointment with the performance of stocks that reach the market first could hurt the offering that comes after it. The combined market value of all S&P 500 stocks today is around $70 trillion, so Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX would each account for more than 1% of the index, which requires institutional investors to allocate significant sums to the new stocks. SpaceX is expected to immediately become one of the ten largest companies in the index. Perhaps the thought crossed Musk’s mind, “Did Altman, who only just fought me in court, file the confidential prospectus דווקא in the week when I am doing my giant IPO?” Will investors prefer to wait and put slightly less money into SpaceX in light of the knowledge that OpenAI will also come to market in a few months? We will get the answer at the end of the week.

As for valuation, all three are very expensive, but at the same time they are also growing at phenomenal rates, which is precisely why their move to the public markets at this stage appeals to investors. In recent years, in fact throughout the decade, tech companies have tended to remain private much longer than usual, which angered Wall Street at Silicon Valley. Private venture capital investors benefited from the extraordinary growth period and sent the companies to the East Coast only when they were already fading, in order to finance the losses. This time, growth is still astonishing. OpenAI, considered the least successful in operational terms, posted revenue of $13 billion in 2025, but in just the first quarter of 2026 it already approached $6 billion. Yet almost every dollar of revenue goes toward covering computing costs, so it is not expected to turn profitable anytime soon, probably not before 2030. The high cash burn at all AI companies is the reason for their IPOs. With all due respect to the Silicon Valley funds, they cannot alone meet the pace of investment required to finance the enormous computing costs that are still ahead.

Anthropic, meanwhile, said in its latest funding round, completed in May, that it was already running at an annual revenue pace of $47 billion and would reach operating break-even in the current quarter. That is also why, for the first time in the relatively short history of the field, Anthropic’s valuation has surpassed OpenAI’s. The high cash burn at all AI companies is also the reason for their IPOs. With all due respect to Silicon Valley funds, they cannot alone keep up with the pace of investment needed to finance the enormous computing costs still to come. This expectation is also reflected in Nvidia’s valuation of more than $5 trillion, Broadcom’s valuation of about $2 trillion, and Micron’s valuation of $1 trillion, the latest addition to the prestigious club.

All three trillion-dollar companies are very expensive in terms of revenue multiples, and after investors see the full prospectuses of Anthropic and OpenAI, they may be shocked by the numbers. On the other hand, during the previous technological leap, when it was time for Google’s IPO in 2004 and then Facebook’s IPO in 2012, valuations also seemed absurd and reflected price-to-earnings ratios of more than 100. In hindsight, all the critics of that time were wrong when they argued passionately that the $23 billion valuation at which Google went public, a company that traded yesterday at around $4.5 trillion, was absurd. Facebook’s business model also raised many questions, similar to the questions being asked today about OpenAI, but Wall Street thought otherwise, and Zuckerberg received a $104 billion valuation in the IPO, which reflected a multiple of more than 100 on forecast earnings. Today, Meta is valued at $1.5 trillion.

The scenario may repeat itself, with the new stocks stumbling in the short term, especially after the publication of their first financial reports, when the cost structure is revealed. But in the long term, the understanding that these are companies at the core of the most important and largest technological revolution, similar to Google’s place in the internet revolution, may make even $1 trillion look like a bargain.

Read the original at Calcalist
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