Lebanese Analyst Outlines Two Emerging Regional Blocs, Positions Turkey and Israel
A Lebanese political analyst, Maher al-Hatib, has described a new regional power dynamic emerging in the Middle East following the October 7th events, characterized by the formation of two distinct alliances. In an article for the newspaper "An-Nashra," al-Hatib posits that Iran's declining influence has created a vacuum being filled by Israel and Turkey, both seeking to expand their regional roles. He views Israel as a "winner" aiming to translate this perception into concrete actions, while Turkey believes it has achieved significant strategic gains, particularly following shifts in the Syrian regime and through agreements with Riyadh.
Al-Hatib identifies two primary emerging blocs. The first, termed the "Mecca Alliance," includes Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, and while possessing a military-defensive nature, it also has a strong economic dimension focused on controlling strategic maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The second bloc, which began forming earlier but remains unofficial, comprises Israel, India, Greece, and Cyprus. This alliance also extends beyond military cooperation, aiming to secure strategic transit points and corridors.
Both emerging alliances reportedly maintain positive relations with the United States, which al-Hatib suggests is working to balance its engagement with both. Washington, he believes, seeks to avoid appearing to favor one bloc over the other, instead projecting a positive stance towards both, despite potential tensions. The US has historically prioritized economic projects to encourage regional normalization with Israel.
Al-Hatib highlights Lebanon's precarious position, calling it one of the most dangerous periods in its history due to the ongoing Hezbollah-Israel conflict and internal divisions. Lebanon is caught between the two blocs, with external actors influencing its decisions. Syria, conversely, appears to be aligning with the Turkey-led bloc due to Ankara's significant influence. Lebanon's situation is more complex, with numerous internal and external forces at play, leading to conflicting foreign policy signals. While Lebanon's economic ties with Syria suggest a leaning towards the first bloc, some segments of Lebanese society may favor closer relations with the second. Al-Hatib concludes that Lebanon will struggle to remain neutral amidst this rivalry and the growing influence of new regional powers, while also noting that Iran is unlikely to relinquish its influence easily.
