Analyst Says Emerging U.S.-Iran Deal Helps Washington, but Leaves Israel Exposed

As officials prepare for a decisive meeting in Switzerland this weekend, Iranian affairs analyst Dr. Jackie Zivulun told Kikar HaShabbat that the expected U.S.-Iran agreement could be a serious setback for Israel. Speaking with Yossi Sargovsky, he said the deal may look like a diplomatic achievement in the West, but in Jerusalem it is being viewed with deep alarm.

Zivulun said Israel went into its latest campaign with three strategic goals, to fully neutralize Iran’s nuclear program, stop its ballistic missile force, and dismantle the proxy network and terror groups that act as Tehran’s arms across the Middle East. In his view, the emerging agreement will not contain all of those elements, meaning the fighting will not translate into lasting quiet and Israel may face more rounds of conflict. He warned that Iran could still decide when to use ballistic weapons or uranium enrichment, which he said is already near a concerning 60 percent level.

On why the deal serves Iran, Zivulun said the regime sees it as a major political win because it preserves its survival, its power, and freedom from external interference. He said Iran may have stopped fighting, but it has “won decisively” in the negotiation arena, showing that it can stand firm even against the world’s strongest power. He added that China, Russia, and North Korea are watching, and that Washington’s perceived weakness projects strength to Tehran.

Turning to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategy, Zivulun argued that the problem was not choosing Donald Trump over Democrats, but relying on individuals instead of institutions. He said the better path would have been to lock security understandings into bipartisan laws in Congress so they would survive changes of president. Still, he said the U.S.-Israel alliance remains intact despite ups and downs, likening it to marriage. He said the next 60 days are crucial, because the Swiss meeting could still collapse and restart the cycle of war, but if the deal is signed, Israel will likely have to wait and watch while trying to tighten cooperation with Washington and keep the closest possible oversight of Iran’s uranium.