Open Questions Around the Emerging U.S.-Iran Deal

Israeli security officials warn that the emerging understandings between the United States and Iran could speed up the rehabilitation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and intensify the Middle East arms race. They say the deal may unlock billions of dollars in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, and could eventually give Iran access to more than $300 billion, including through Gulf states, before Iranian oil and gas exports are gradually resumed.

Those officials argue that the arrangement would let Tehran collect tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. One source said, "This is not a regime, but a terrorist organization that runs a state, it is not a normal country, otherwise it would not ignore what is happening in the street," referring to Iran’s economic crisis and public unrest. They also said regime leaders are mocking President Masoud Pezeshkian when he complains about severe economic hardship, while the leadership focuses on the Basij and security services to prevent protests, especially as internet access is being slowly restored.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly confirmed yesterday the assessment that Washington is keeping Israel out of the details of the developing deal with Tehran. As a result, it remains unclear what Donald Trump is demanding from Iran, whether the removal of enriched uranium from Iran or its dilution under IAEA supervision on Iranian soil, which Tehran prefers.

Meanwhile, Iran and Hezbollah are said to expect Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon 60 days after a memorandum of understanding is signed. Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz, however, are signaling the opposite, saying the IDF will remain in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. Security officials say the political leadership should instead pursue a diplomatic initiative with the Lebanese government to strengthen moderate forces against Iran and Hezbollah.