US-Iran Understanding Could Ease Pressure on Trump, But Leave Israel Facing New Risks

A framework understanding between the United States and Iran could be signed as soon as Sunday, but the article argues it is only the beginning of a longer process, with talks expected to continue for 60 more days. Drawing on past nuclear negotiations under Barack Obama, it says the deal is still far from final and that the situation remains clouded by uncertainty in both Washington and Tehran.

The central claim is that the emerging arrangement would first and foremost help Iran. By gradually unlocking frozen money and easing sanctions, it could give the regime resources to address domestic hardships, rebuild its damaged nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and reinforce its survival. The article says the greatest Israeli concern is the possible restoration of the 60 percent enriched uranium issue, though it is still unclear how that would be handled. It also says Israel has been largely excluded from the talks and has little influence over them, despite regular conversations between Benjamin Netanyahu and the US president.

The piece says Iran has also improved its regional leverage by using the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip, threatening global energy supplies and pressuring the world economy. It says Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain, now see that Washington cannot or will not fully protect them, which is pushing some of them toward closer ties with Tehran rather than with Israel. Iran has also strengthened its links to Hezbollah and the Houthis, potentially constraining Israeli action in Lebanon, Yemen and elsewhere.

At the same time, the article says a halt to the war could bring advantages. Reopening Hormuz would lower pressure on Donald Trump, reduce oil prices, and make it easier for him to negotiate harder with Iran, especially before the midterm elections. It also says Gulf states are already pursuing alternative land-based routes for oil, gas and freight that could benefit Turkey and Israel while hurting Egypt. Inside Iran, the article argues that ending the fighting could expose the regime to domestic unrest, since economic distress, shortages and public anger have been held in check by war.

On Lebanon, the article says Israel must decide how to neutralize Hezbollah after its gains on the ground, either through deeper military control or through coordinated political and economic steps with the United States, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. It says Israel’s seizure of areas including the Litani line, South Nabatieh and the Beaufort Ridge gave it valuable leverage, especially after destroying two large underground Hezbollah tunnel systems. The article concludes that further clashes with Iran and its proxies are likely, but that the intervals between them may be longer, possibly five to 10 years, if Iran’s recovery is slowed.