Right-Wing Voters Split Over Likud Exodus and Future of West Bank Amid Political Uncertainty
Recent polling reveals a significant shift among former Likud voters, with the party losing eight Knesset seats due to defections to both opposition and smaller coalition parties. Among those leaving Likud are diverse groups: some move to opposition parties like Benny Gantz's, while others join smaller right-wing factions such as Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism. A notable example includes a 50-year-old secular woman from Rishon Lezion who left Likud but remains undecided on her next vote, citing issues like the October 7 attacks and ultra-Orthodox conscription as key reasons. Conversely, a 49-year-old man from Jerusalem, who joined Otzma Yehudit, represents voters seeking a more hardline stance, frustrated by the unresolved conflict.
The divide among defectors also reflects differing perceptions of Israel's progress in the ongoing war: 90% of those moving to coalition parties believe Israel is winning, while 52% of those shifting to the opposition feel Israel is losing. This split underscores contrasting motivations, with opposition defectors primarily concerned about ultra-Orthodox conscription and coalition defectors focused on judicial reforms. This dynamic complicates Likud's internal primaries and overall strategy.
Regarding the future of the West Bank, public opinion remains conflicted and subdued, reflecting the complexity and sensitivity of the issue. A recent JPPI survey presented ten long-term scenarios, with two dominant preferences emerging: about 20% support partial annexation with a Palestinian state in other areas, while a similar share favors full annexation coupled with the transfer of the Arab population to other countries. Only 27% of Jewish respondents are open to a Palestinian state solution, indicating widespread skepticism.
When forced to choose between maintaining a Jewish majority in Israel or retaining sovereignty over all the land between the Jordan River and the sea, 55% of Israelis and 60% of Jewish respondents prioritize a Jewish majority even if it means territorial concessions. Meanwhile, the annexation camp is divided, with nearly half willing to forgo a Jewish majority to keep all the land, and others hoping for solutions that avoid this dilemma.
The survey highlights the absence of a clear, actionable plan for resolving the West Bank issue, with many Israelis deferring the decision amid ongoing demographic and territorial changes. Political actors and the public alike seem to await a decisive event or leader to break the deadlock, underscoring the fraught nature of Israel's current political and security landscape.
