Despite battlefield gains, Israel’s war goals remain unresolved

After two and a half years of fighting, the article argues that Israel has not achieved the sweeping goals promised when Operation "Roar of the Lion" began. Israeli officials and commentators had spoken of destroying Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, toppling the regime, cutting off support for proxies, and securing unprecedented coordination with the United States. Instead, the regime in Tehran is still functioning, Iranian missiles remain a threat, and the nuclear program is still alive.

The piece says Iran’s nuclear infrastructure was damaged, but all of its enriched uranium remains in Iranian hands and rebuilding the enrichment and processing sites could take about two years. Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal has shrunk, yet it still has enough to threaten Israel and Gulf states. Its production capacity was not destroyed, and in the period between "With the Strength of a Lion" and "Roar of the Lion," the missile industry reportedly increased output, refilled stockpiles, and forced both Israel and the United States to use up interception missiles.

On the proxy front, the article says Hamas is tightening control in Gaza and blocking deployment of Trump plan peace forces, Hezbollah is still fighting the IDF and causing casualties in the north, and the Houthis continue to launch attacks intermittently. It also says Iran can choke the global economy through the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthis can periodically block the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Meanwhile, Tehran is negotiating slowly and extracting concessions from Donald Trump, while Israel is excluded from the talks and is not even given basic information about the discussions.

The article says Benjamin Netanyahu is selling a victory narrative, claiming Israel is stronger than ever and Iran weaker than ever, but that the war is stretching on while hostility toward Israel abroad deepens. It says Israel has become one of the world’s most hated countries, facing boycotts and protests. According to the article, Netanyahu has put all his hopes on Trump, who has taken major pro-Israel steps, including moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing the Golan Heights, and helping secure the release of hostages. But Trump’s interest now is to stop the war and reach a deal, even a bad one for Israel.

The final section says Netanyahu has twice said no to Trump in recent days, over a strike in the Dahieh area and another in Iran, but Trump has also checked him several times and exposed his vulnerability. The article quotes Trump as telling Netanyahu, "without me you would already be in prison" and "if not for me, Israel would already have been destroyed." It adds that President Isaac Herzog praised Trump on his 80th birthday, thanking him for confronting Iran and helping free hostages. The next major test, the article says, is Lebanon, where Israel may be forced to stop firing if Trump intervenes, while Iran could restrain Hezbollah from opening fire and push it north of the Litani River, allowing it to rebuild for the next round.