Israeli analyst says military success in Iran campaign was overshadowed by a painful strategic outcome

Israeli military analyst Yossi Yehoshua wrote in Yedioth Ahronoth that the public mood in Israel after the emerging deal with Iran is even more bitter than it was after the Second Lebanon War. He argued that this time the IDF came prepared, performed exceptionally on the battlefield, and delivered remarkable capabilities, yet the diplomatic and strategic result is still being seen as a stinging failure.

Yehoshua said the last time Israelis felt this sense of defeat was after the 2006 war, when the army had been unprepared and the public backlash also hit then-Chief of Staff Dan Halutz and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. This time, he wrote, the frustration is deeper precisely because of the success of the IDF, the Air Force, and Military Intelligence, which only sharpens the gap between the military achievement and the final outcome, and weakens Israeli deterrence.

He quoted a senior Israeli official as saying, “If Israel had known in advance that this would be the final result, there is serious doubt whether we would have launched ‘Rising Lion.’” Yehoshua described the operation as one of the most impressive and significant military campaigns ever conducted against the Islamic Republic, and as a striking display of Israeli leadership in a joint effort seen by the whole world.

At the same time, he warned that the campaign exposed the danger of Israel’s dependence on the United States and President Donald Trump. In his view, Trump’s conduct in the negotiations left Israel with less freedom of action and reduced deterrence. Yehoshua said the strained relationship between Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not gossip or a personal matter, but a clear security issue. He also cited an Aman war warning from 2023, which said Israel’s enemies, especially Iran and Hezbollah, could exploit signs of weakness in the Jerusalem-Washington relationship as an opening for surprise action.