Israel Won Major Battlefield Gains Against Iran, but the Diplomacy Left It Weaker
Looking back, the June 2025 operation "Am Kalavi" was Israel’s high point in the war with Iran, while the U.S. memorandum that ended the "Roar of the Lion" campaign marked a strategic low. The article says Israel and U.S. Central Command achieved historic military cooperation and pushed Iran’s nuclear and missile programs back by years, but the Trump-brokered deal gave Tehran a psychological win, economic relief, and new limits on Israel’s freedom of action in Iran and Lebanon.
The author argues that Iran was not on the verge of immediate annihilation, but was moving toward the capability to build a first nuclear explosive device. Israel and the United States struck key enrichment sites and buried 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched material at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan, while Fordow was taken offline for a long time by U.S. bombers. The nuclear program, according to the piece, was set back three to five years, and Iran is not expected to break out in the near term because it still lacks a reliable weapon, multiple warheads, and the ability to test secretly without triggering international detection.
On missiles, the article says Israel destroyed more than half of Iran’s ballistic missile force and many launchers, but the threat remains. Before the campaign, Iran had about 2,500 long-range ballistic missiles and several hundred launchers, many hidden in underground missile cities. Even after the strikes, more than 1,000 missiles and several thousand explosive drones likely remain, meaning Iran can still threaten Israel, the region, and even Europe, though only with carefully rationed salvos.
The biggest strategic achievement, the piece says, was the systematic destruction of Iran’s defense industries, research facilities, steel plants, and petrochemical sites, which may take two to three years to rebuild even with foreign money. Israel also gained near-total freedom of action in Iranian airspace, exposing vital regime infrastructure. Yet the memorandum now restricts Israel in Lebanon, where Hezbollah remains weakened but not defeated. Israel keeps forces in a new security zone in southern Lebanon, continues strikes on threats, and is seeking an eventual deal with Beirut, but the article says only a real diplomatic settlement can produce lasting stability.
The piece concludes that the war has improved Israel’s immediate security but worsened its strategic position because it lacks a political endgame. It says another war with Iran is unlikely soon, the U.S. will not restart major fighting before the end of 2026, and Tehran has every reason to avoid provoking Trump while sanctions relief is still possible.
