Hapoel Tel Aviv Faces Long Odds Against Atalanta in Conference League Playoff

Hapoel Tel Aviv advanced to the Conference League playoff round after a 3-2 aggregate victory over Katowice but now faces a formidable opponent in Atalanta, one of the tournament favorites. According to the Football Meets Data algorithm, Hapoel has only an 8% chance of advancing compared to Atalanta's 92%. Atalanta is heavily favored to win both legs, with a 79% chance in the first match and 68% in the second, while Hapoel's chances stand at 7% and 13%, respectively.

The financial disparity between the teams is stark: Atalanta's squad is valued at 417 million euros, dwarfing Hapoel's 17.7 million euros. Eleven Atalanta players individually are worth more than Hapoel's entire roster. Atalanta has secured its place in the playoff and will play a friendly against Athletic Bilbao before facing Hapoel in their first official match of the season, followed by a Serie A game against Sassuolo.

The article references a rare precedent where Romanian side Astra Giurgiu eliminated West Ham twice despite being heavy underdogs, highlighting how a Hapoel victory would be one of the biggest upsets in European football history. Other Israeli teams in Europe have varying chances of progression: Hapoel Be'er Sheva has a 47% chance against Sabah, Maccabi Tel Aviv only 5% against CSKA Sofia, and Beitar Jerusalem 28% against Austria Vienna.

The outlook underscores the challenge Hapoel Tel Aviv faces but also the potential for a historic upset against a top-tier European club.