Hapoel Tel Aviv Faces Long Odds Against Atalanta in Conference League Playoff

Hapoel Tel Aviv advanced to the UEFA Conference League playoff round after a 3-2 aggregate win over Katowice, but now faces a daunting challenge against Atalanta, one of the tournament favorites. According to Football Meets Data's algorithm, Hapoel has only an 8% chance of advancing compared to Atalanta's 92%. Atalanta is heavily favored to win both legs, with a 79% probability for the first match and 68% for the second, while Hapoel's chances stand at 7% and 13%, respectively.

The financial disparity between the teams is stark, with Atalanta's squad valued at 417 million euros versus Hapoel's 17.7 million euros. Eleven Atalanta players individually are worth more than the entire Hapoel roster. Atalanta will play a friendly against Athletic Bilbao before their official season opener against Hapoel, followed by a Serie A match against Sassuolo.

The article notes a rare precedent for an upset: Romanian side Astra Giurgiu eliminated West Ham twice consecutively with strong defensive play, but given the vast valuation gap, a Hapoel victory would rank among the biggest shocks in European football history.

Other Israeli teams in European competition have varying chances of progression: Hapoel Be'er Sheva holds a 47% chance against Sabah, Maccabi Tel Aviv only 5% against CSKA Sofia, and Beitar Jerusalem 28% against Austria Vienna. These figures highlight the uphill battles Israeli clubs face in continental tournaments.