Poll Shows Limited Support Among Likud Members for New Erdan-Adelstein Party

A recent exclusive poll reveals that only 3.9% of registered Likud members are highly likely to vote for the new party formed by Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein. In contrast, 14.8% of the broader Likud voter base express a high likelihood of supporting the new party. Among all Likud members surveyed, 59.7% are certain they will not vote for Erdan and Edelstein's party, while 13.9% consider it very unlikely. Meanwhile, 11.6% see a moderate chance and 14.8% a high chance of voting for the new faction.

The poll also examined Likud members' perceptions of election polls, with 52.7% believing that the right-wing and ultra-Orthodox bloc is set to win the upcoming 2026 elections. Only 8.2% think the bloc is currently behind, while 29.5% distrust all polls and 9.6% are unsure. These findings indicate strong resistance within Likud's core membership to the new political project by Erdan and Edelstein, despite a general confidence in the right-wing bloc's victory. However, the wider Likud voter base shows a greater openness to considering the new party.

Yuli Edelstein recently announced he will not run in the Likud primaries, signaling a shift in the party dynamics ahead of the elections. The data underscores the challenges facing the new party in attracting committed Likud members, even as it gains some traction among general voters.