Regional Alliances Shift as Middle East Eyes Iran's Endurance Post-Trump
Dr. Mordechai Kedar analyzes the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East ahead of the upcoming U.S. and Israeli elections, highlighting new security alliances forming primarily in response to Iran's perceived survival and strength. Kedar notes that both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former U.S. President Donald Trump aim to showcase achievements to their voters, but their narratives differ: Trump promotes a vision of peaceful coexistence among Jews and Muslims, while Netanyahu emphasizes Israel's dominance over adversaries like Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah. However, Kedar criticizes Israel's heavy reliance on the U.S., arguing that Israel should diversify its international relations to include powers like China and Russia to avoid dependency on American policy shifts.
Kedar explains that recent regional alliances are not directly aimed against Israel but are focused on countering Iran, which regional states view as having emerged victorious from conflicts by maintaining its regime despite U.S. pressure. He points to recent Shia Ashura processions as emblematic of Iran's enduring influence. The fear among Middle Eastern countries is that the U.S. might reduce its involvement in the region, especially if Trump withdraws troops to secure electoral gains or faces political challenges, potentially leaving Iran stronger and more influential, particularly around the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Using a chess metaphor, Kedar emphasizes that Iran's survival equates to a win since "if you don't kill the king, you lose." He suggests that while Trump’s tenure may end soon, Iran’s influence will persist, reshaping regional power dynamics. This outlook drives regional states to preemptively form new security partnerships to prepare for a post-Trump era where Iran remains a dominant force.
Summary: Dr. Mordechai Kedar assesses that Middle Eastern countries are forging new alliances primarily to counter Iran, which they see as having survived U.S. pressure and poised to grow stronger after Trump’s presidency ends. Israel’s dependence on the U.S. limits its strategic options, prompting calls for broader international ties. The region braces for a future where Iran’s influence remains significant, reshaping security calculations.
