Trump’s Iran Shift Could Tie Israel’s Hands, Expert Warns

A rapid turn by President Donald Trump toward Tehran has left Jerusalem in a difficult position, according to Dr. Shay Har-Zvi, an expert in strategy and security at Reichman University. Har-Zvi says the change is not a random zigzag, but a deliberate American strategy aimed at ending the current fighting because it no longer serves U.S. interests. He says Trump has concluded long ago that an agreement is the best immediate option, and that the emerging deal is expected to be reached for a short 60-day period.

Har-Zvi argues that the deal is designed mainly to meet domestic American needs, including the midterm elections and World Cup-related considerations, while also delivering quick wins such as reopening the Strait of Hormuz and freeing oil tankers trapped there. From Israel’s perspective, he says, the arrangement is highly problematic because, based on public reporting, it does not address Iran’s missile program, its regional proxies, or the nuclear issue in any deep way.

He says Trump may still present small measures, such as reducing or removing 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, as an achievement, but calls that only cosmetic. The larger danger, he says, is that the deal ignores 20% enriched uranium, advanced centrifuges and fortified underground nuclear sites, all without intrusive monitoring. He warns that Iran has spent two decades mastering delay and deception, and sees sanctions relief and cash inflows as a lifeline that could help the regime survive until after Trump leaves office in January 2029.

Har-Zvi also says the U.S.-Iran deal directly affects Israel’s northern front by restricting the IDF’s freedom of action in Lebanon. He says Trump does not want Israeli moves that could reignite the region during negotiations, creating heavy pressure on Israel’s security establishment. Hezbollah, he says, continues firing at Israeli forces in southern Lebanon while limiting direct fire into Israel, leaving Jerusalem constrained in its response. Har-Zvi says this dangerous loop puts soldiers at risk and keeps northern residents from returning home. He calls on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel’s leadership to press their red lines in any future permanent agreement and to build a long-term strategy that can undermine and eventually topple the radical regime in Tehran.