Trump’s Reluctance to Escalate Leaves Netanyahu Exposed

The article argues that U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly shown a willingness to start military action, but also to stop it abruptly when he sees no clear win. It says that during Operation With All His Lion, he forced Israeli Air Force planes to turn back before a major strike on Iran, and later compelled Israel into an uncomfortable ceasefire in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. In doing so, the piece says, Israel shifted from an ally to a dependent partner that is expected to obey and say thank you.

According to the article, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu knew Trump was erratic, narcissistic and unreliable, but still made a calculated bet on him. After Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal at Netanyahu’s urging, the two leaders entered the Iran war with different goals. Israel wanted to destroy nuclear facilities, eliminate the missile industry, dismantle proxy forces and, ultimately, help topple the regime. The United States aimed to remove or destroy enriched uranium and offer moral support to protesters in the streets.

The writer says the rift sharpened in February, ahead of a second phase of the war. Netanyahu believed renewed bombing would bring the regime down within days, but on February 11 at the White House, and again on February 12 without Netanyahu present, Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and top security officials rejected the Israeli plan. Trump stayed silent. When the Iranian regime did not collapse and protesters did not march on Tehran, Trump, the article says, got cold feet and cut his losses.

The piece also extends the critique to Lebanon and Gaza. It says Israeli success early in the campaign created overconfidence in the army and government, and that no one seriously entertained the possibility that the Iranian regime would survive and grow stronger. It adds that strikes in Beirut’s Dahiyeh are partly driven by Netanyahu’s desire to show voters he is not obeying every Trump order, but warns that pushing Trump toward the Iranians would be dangerous. The article concludes that, unlike Trump, Netanyahu does not know how to cut his losses or withdraw, citing Israel’s deepening presence in Syria, Gaza and Lebanon, and saying the country’s security policy now swings between Netanyahu and Trump. “All that remains is to trust the ginger.”